IS BRITAIN CHANGING ITS MIND ABOUT BREXIT?

With less than 80 days until the UK is scheduled to exit the European Union, polling evidence suggests that many voters who backed Leave in the 2016 referendum would now prefer to remain.


The factors driving this swing, according to pollsters, are the state of the economy and the perceived consequence of a ‘hard Brexit’.

After the accurate results we achieved in our 2016 Brexit referendum and US Presidential election sentiment trackers, we decided to:


  • See how the ongoing parliamentary activity around withdrawal is shifting the public’s attitude.

  • Look at key economic data and understand how parliamentary events are impacting the UK economy.

  • Establish how the shifting public sentiment is impacting our own economic prosperity.

  • Currently, the public’s sentiment towards Brexit is:

    Twitter Sentiment

    Date

    %

    %

    Public and economic sentiment over time:

    Brexit & Economic Related News

    How are we measuring the national mood?

    We built a low-cost analytics engine to monitor Twitter.

    It collects approximately five Brexit-related Tweets every second. The engine then processes each of these Tweets in real-time using a general NLP (natural language processing) classifier to determine the Tweet’s tone – either positive or negative - towards Brexit.

    From this, a snapshot of the overall sentiment within the Brexit debate is established. We present the results in four-hour increments.

    To add greater insight, we have also linked these four-hour increments to key world headlines. Are movements in sentiment Brexit-related concerns, or are they driven by other events on the global stage?

    By clicking through the news headlines that we present, a true picture can be formed.

    Many businesses and lobbying groups such as the CBI have voiced deep concern of the economic harm that Brexit might be presenting to the UK economy.

    However, only a few organisations provide real insight into how this translates into economic impact.

    We used our tool to measure this by aggregating share data from the London Stock Exchange, as well as the fluctuating Euro/Sterling exchange rate.

    Based on this, our model then interprets the fluctuation in either positive or negative economic terms.



    HOW TO INTERPRET THESE RESULTS

    It is important to note that our engine has been trained to be neutral.

    It does not take any bias and has been configured to simply report the current mood of the Brexit debate.

    Clicking on the markers (four per hour for Twitter Sentiment, or one per day for the Economic Indicator) illustrates the current mood of the nation – either positive (to the top of the graph, or negative to the bottom of the graph). Positive sentiment is expressed as a blue percentage, while negative sentiment is expressed as a red percentage.